US Data Centers Are on Track to Burn More Gas Than Germany and Japan — Combined
A new BloombergNEF forecast says the AI buildout alone could consume 18 billion cubic feet of gas per day by 2035 — and it's starting to reshape how power gets priced.
Published: 2026-09-16 Category: Quick Take Sources: TechCrunch — US data centers could consume more natural gas than Germany and Japan combined by 2035
What happened
The AI race has grown so frenzied that, by 2035, U.S. data centers are projected to consume more natural gas than Germany and Japan combined. Over the next decade, data centers will be the second-strongest driver of natural gas demand growth after LNG exports, consuming about 18 billion cubic feet per day by 2035 — according to a new report from BloombergNEF — nearly double what the firm predicted just nine months ago. The new forecast already accounts for the likelihood that not all announced data center projects will be completed.
The most striking driver is on-site power. Meta, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon have all announced plans for new natural gas power plants that bypass the grid. Those projects alone would consume 2.9 to 3.4 billion cubic feet per day by 2035 — roughly as much as all data centers consume today. But BloombergNEF says grid-connected data centers could be the bigger story: by the mid-2030s they're predicted to drive an additional 15 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas consumption via the power sector — five times more demand growth through 2035 than from all other grid-connected sectors combined.
The grid-bypass signal
The on-site power plants are the revealing part. Tech companies building natural gas generation that bypasses the grid is a blunt admission that the grid can't keep up with AI's electricity appetite — and that they're unwilling to wait for transmission upgrades or renewable buildout. It's also a cost and control play: generate your own power, and you decouple from grid congestion, price spikes, and the slow dance of getting a utility-scale interconnection approved.
But that strategy has an underappreciated effect on the broader energy system. Every data center that builds its own gas plant is a load that no longer pays into grid infrastructure — yet the grid still has to be maintained for everyone else. And the concentration is staggering: grid-connected data centers are predicted to account for five times more gas demand growth than every other grid-connected sector combined. That isn't a marginal trend; it's the AI buildout becoming the single dominant driver of America's gas demand, period.
Why this matters
This is where the numbers get politically uncomfortable. A surge this large could push natural gas prices higher. Much of today's data center buildout relies on the stable gas prices of recent years, but analysts at Noreva argue that's a false hope — the combined pressure of the data center boom and rising LNG exports could cause prices to soar. Tech companies' balance sheets might absorb that, but utility ratepayers — ordinary households and businesses — might not be able to. The AI boom could end up raising energy bills for people who never use AI at all.
There's also the carbon arithmetic. Burning one cubic foot of natural gas releases the equivalent of 60 grams of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, including extraction, processing, and transport. Multiply by 18 billion cubic feet a day and the climate implications scale up fast — a direct tension with the sustainability commitments nearly every major AI company has made. The core tension here is one the industry hasn't resolved: the frontier AI race demands an unprecedented surge in power, and the cheapest, fastest way to get it — natural gas — is in direct conflict with both grid fairness and climate goals. That collision is only going to get louder as the buildout accelerates.
Reporting via TechCrunch's "US data centers could consume more natural gas than Germany and Japan combined by 2035" (September 15, 2026).