Accel in Talks to Lead $1B Round for Thinking Machines at a $40B Valuation

The Murati-founded lab would command a stunning revenue multiple — and a valuation below what it reportedly sought last year.

Published: 2026-09-05 Category: Quick Take Sources: TechCrunch

The Round

Accel is reportedly in talks to lead a $1 billion round for Thinking Machines at a $40 billion valuation. If completed, the round would value the company below the $50 billion valuation it reportedly sought late last year — a notable markdown from its own ambitions, even as the absolute number stays enormous.

Thinking Machines' annual revenue run rate stands at over $100 million, according to a source with knowledge of the company's finances. At that figure, a $40 billion valuation reflects an extraordinarily high revenue multiple — roughly 400x — a number that only makes sense in the context of frontier-AI scarcity pricing.

The Pedigree

Thinking Machines was founded by Mira Murati, the former OpenAI CTO, and a cohort of ex-OpenAI researchers. That pedigree drove its prior fundraise — a $2 billion round that ranks among the largest seed financings in history, valuing the company at $12 billion. Andreessen Horowitz led that round, joined by Nvidia, GV, Lightspeed, and Conviction Partners.

In July, the company introduced Inkling, an open-weight model that generates revenue by charging usage-based compute fees for adapting models on proprietary data via its Tinker platform. That business model — selling adaptation and compute rather than just a model — is a deliberate bet that the value in AI shifts toward deployment and customization.

Why It Matters

The gap between the $50 billion Thinking Machines reportedly wanted and the $40 billion Accel is reportedly willing to pay is the real story. It suggests that even the most pedigreed frontier labs are facing a more disciplined market than they hoped. Investors are starting to price in the brutal economics of frontier AI: enormous compute costs, uncertain differentiation, and a revenue base that is still thin relative to valuation.

The 400x revenue multiple also invites skepticism. It's justified only if Thinking Machines can grow into it — which means Inkling and Tinker need to become real, recurring revenue engines, not just promising demos. The open-weight strategy is a differentiator against closed labs like OpenAI and Anthropic, but it also means competing in a crowded field of open models.

The Take

Thinking Machines is a test case for how the market values frontier AI talent. The pedigree is real, the technology is real, and the revenue is real — but the valuation is a bet on the future, not the present. A $40 billion round led by Accel would be a vote of confidence that Murati's team can convert research prestige into a durable business. The markdown from $50 billion, though, is a reminder that even the hottest labs aren't immune to gravity.

Source: TechCrunch